Death of the Moderate Republican
Markos Moulitsas Zúniga, publisher and founder of Daily Kos, the largest progressive blog in the United States, writes an intuitive article presenting former Representative, Tom Davis, on the Death of the Moderate Republican. Davis writes:
But let’s not kid ourselves, our party is broken. In no small way, we’ve been victims of our own success. We fought communism and won. We fought stagnation brought on by high taxes and restrictive government policies. Today, voters take low taxes as a given, and the burden of proof – even in the wake of the financial crisis – is on those who would regulate, not those who would remove regulations.
With the heavy lifting out of the way, we indulged in more trivial pursuits – and this led to trouble. We talked to ourselves and not to voters. We became more concerned with stem cell policy than economic policy, and with prayer in schools rather than balance in our public budgets and priorities. Not so long ago, it was easy to paint the Democrats as the party of extremists. Now, they say we’re extremists, and voters agree.
As a result, we’ve seen our support erode. Urban centers remain under Democratic control. Exurbs and rural areas remain under Republican dominance. But in the battleground that lies between – the suburbs — we were winning them; now we’re not. Our candidates are safe in a swath that extends from North Texas across to North Alabama and up through Appalachia. Elsewhere, we are on the run. Almost every voter who can be convinced – who sometimes votes Democratic, sometimes Republican – now votes Democratic.
We’ve long-since given up on the African-American vote. We’re forfeiting the Hispanic vote with unwarranted and unsavory vitriol against immigrants. Youth vote? Gone. We ask for nothing from these idealistic voters, we offer little except chastisement of their lifestyle choices and denial of global warming, and we are woefully behind the Democrats in learning how to connect with them.
Soccer moms? They’re not comfortable with much of our social policy agenda, so many are gone as well. NASCAR dads? They’re our last redoubt, and the trends even there are not encouraging as unemployment rises and 401 (k)s are decimated. They want clean, competent government that meets basic challenges. They don’t see tax cuts or stimulus checks that net them another $500 per year as meaningful, and they are not comfortable with the profligate deficits that result. As one veteran Republican campaign professional told pollster Charlie Cook: Voting for tax increases hurts politically much more than voting for tax cuts helps.
Sounds about right. To put numbers to what Davis writes above, from the 2008 exit polls (2004 results):
Obama McCain Kerry Bush Change
Urban: 63 35 54 45 D+19
Suburban: 50 48 47 52 D+7
Rural: 45 53 42 57 D+7
Northeast: 59 40 56 43 D+6
Midwest: 54 44 48 51 D+13
South: 45 54 42 58 D+7
West: 57 40 50 49 D+16
African 95 4 88 11 D+14
American:
Latino: 67 31 53 44 D+27
18-29: 66 32 54 45 D+25
Davis worries about suburban voters because, yes, they now edge Democratic. But the seven-point swing in the Democrat’s direction in the suburbs matched the seven-point swing in rural areas. Davis’ rural GOP stronghold is looking flimsier by the day. Gains in the South were driven in large part by increased African American turnout. Take them out, and white southern males are truly the GOP’s dead-enders.
The two biggest problems for the GOP, which Davis noted, are the 18-29 year olds and Latinos. Without those two groups, the GOP is fated for DEEP minorities for a generation. Just look at those swings!
So what are Davis’ solutions?
First, we eliminate checklists and litmus tests and focus on broad principles, not heavy-handed prescriptions. Free trade. Strong defense – at home and abroad. Government as small as is practicable in these times. Economic, education and energy policies that promote growth, energy independence and a competitive agenda that will allow businesses to grow and compete, not be protected by artificial barriers.
That is the current GOP agenda minus one big, glaring omission: nothing about “Strong family values”. In fact, he ignores the issue altogether, pretending that the modern GOP isn’t beholden to its Sarah Palin wing. I have no doubt Palin cost McCain support among independents and Democrats, but she certainly energized McCain’s campaign by bringing aboard its most motivated foot soldiers. Who does Tom Davis think will knock on doors for GOP candidates if you strip out its evangelical base? Wall Street Rockafeller Republicans? Stockbrokers? Bankers?
He does offer one good bit of advice to his party, hitting a note that I’ve latched on the past several years:
We also need to stop talking about how much we hate government if we expect people to elect us to run it. Perfecting it, reducing it to its ideal size, having it accomplish what we need with minimal resources requires that we embrace it and study it and work hard at it.
Great advice; but good luck selling it, because at its core, the GOP hates government. That is why Bush placed “heckuva job” Brownie in charge of FEMA. Because had he nominated someone competent and able to run complex logistical disaster relief operations, government would have worked. And if government works, then all the GOP propaganda about the evil government would be laid bare. If Republicans claim government doesn’t work, then of course they can’t run government that works. Davis gets this, but his party’s patron saint set the tone when he said:
The nine most terrifying words in the English language are, ‘I’m from the government and I’m here to help.
In an ideological battle between Ronald Reagan and Tom Davis, who do you think will win?
So worthy effort, Tom, but smart move getting out. You go to Congress with the Republican Party you have–not the Republican Party you might want or wish to have at a later time.
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